HR in a Post-AI World

The Shift That's Already Starting

I've been thinking a lot about what HR looks like in a post-AI world. And I don't think we're talking about it honestly enough. How will the People function operate, when the size of the employee population contracts, but the level of work and output doesn't?

As I thought about how this will affect HR as a service, it made me think about my time at Nike and the unique structure that their HR function operates within. I spent a year there inside an HR structure that has stuck with me ever since. You had a central HR function that pushed organization-wide programs and information — benefits, company-wide initiatives, the things that didn't need to be tailored. And then you had specialists who were assigned to several organizations/business units at once — the compensation person who knew three or four business groups deeply, the recruiter embedded across a handful of teams, the L&D person who understood the nuances of each org they served. And then inside each org (the Jordan Brand in my case), you had the HRBPs who knew their people deeply, the support team - a coordinator and admin, that made sure that all the processes and day-to day pieces were handled and ran smoothly, and a strategic connector role (that was me) whose job was to make sure everyone was aligned — that leadership was driving toward the same vision, that the HRBPs had the information and context they needed to do their jobs well, and that strategy actually translated into execution.

I didn't fully appreciate how intentional that model was until I started thinking about where HR is headed. Because I think that structure — a centralized network of specialists, dedicated but shared, paired with a small embedded team inside the organization — is exactly what HR needs to become.

Let me walk through how I think this unfolds.

The Workforce Is Going to Shrink

Let's be honest about what AI is actually going to do to the employment landscape. A company that used to need 800 people to operate will do it with a fraction of that. Not because they're cutting corners — but because AI is handling what used to require human hours. Reporting. Drafting. Scheduling. Data analysis. Tier-one decisions. The work gets done. The headcount doesn't need to be there to do it.

That changes everything. Not just for the workforce — for HR.

What a Smaller, More Complex Workforce Actually Means

Here's the part that doesn't get talked about enough: the people who remain aren't doing simple work. They're doing the complex, high-skill, high-judgment work that AI can't touch. Which means the workforce HR is managing is simultaneously smaller and more demanding per person.

Every single employee matters more. Losing one person is a significant hit. The stakes of every people decision — who you hire, how you develop them, how you retain them, how you navigate hard moments with them — go up considerably.

That's not a smaller HR job. That's a harder one.

The Transactional Work Disappears

At the same time, a significant portion of what HR has traditionally spent its time on gets absorbed by AI. Benefits administration. Compliance reporting. Drafting standard communications. Scheduling. Pulling data. Processing paperwork.

The HR generalist who spends their days managing process is going to have a very hard time justifying that role. Not because they aren't working hard — but because the work itself is going away, and so is the volume of people it used to serve.

What's left is everything that actually requires a human.

HR Has to Be Built Differently

This is where the Nike model comes back into focus. The logic behind it — specialists who are dedicated but shared across organizations, paired with an embedded team that knows the company deeply — becomes more relevant in a post-AI world, not less.

The senior HR professionals of the future will likely serve two to five companies simultaneously. Not as a generalized service, but as dedicated partners with real knowledge of each organization they support. The Head of People who sets strategy and designs the people infrastructure. The Operations Conductor who makes sure the AI-driven systems are running correctly and the right information is flowing. The recruiter who owns the full employee lifecycle. The DEI and culture specialist who keeps the human fabric of the organization intact.

Think less "HR vendor" and more "your HR team, who also happens to serve a few other organizations."

Meanwhile, a small embedded team stays inside the company. The HRBP who is deeply relational and present for the hardest human moments. The People Integration Lead — that strategic connector role — who keeps the shared network and the embedded team aligned, translates strategy into execution, and makes sure leadership always has what they need to move forward. And the operations person on the ground, making sure the day-to-day infrastructure is actually working.

What Only Humans Can Do Becomes the Entire Job

Here's the optimistic part — and I mean it genuinely.

HR has been asking for a strategic seat for decades. AI might finally force the issue. Not because leadership suddenly decides to value the function, but because the work that remains demands it.

Sitting with someone in a hard moment. Reading a room. Holding trust through a difficult conversation. Making judgment calls with incomplete information. Navigating the competing interests of leadership, employees, and the organization. Knowing when the right answer isn't the easy one.

That's what's left. And none of it can be automated.

The HR professionals who lean into that work — who let AI take what it can take and use the time it frees up to go deeper on the human stuff — are going to be extraordinarily valuable in this new landscape.

The ones who don't are going to find themselves in roles that no longer exist.

This Is Just the Beginning

The shift I'm describing isn't coming in ten years. It's already starting. The organizations that get ahead of it — that start thinking now about how their HR function needs to evolve — are going to have a significant advantage.

In the next article, I'm going to dig into the HR functions themselves — benefits, recruiting, operations, L&D, employee relations, and more — and talk honestly about what happens to each one. What gets absorbed by AI, what evolves, and what disappears entirely.

But I want to hear from you first.

Is your HR function already feeling this pressure? And do you think HR is ready for the version of itself that's coming?